Think of it this way. Suppose that there was a high 80% chance that the market will rise 10% over the coming year, and just a small 20% chance that it will decline 15% over the coming year. Sound like good odds? Well, given those odds, the expected return would be [.80(10%) + .20(-15%) = ] 5%, which is the same as you'd get in risk-free T-bills. A risk-averse investor wouldn't take the bet.

At present, my impression is that even those odds would be very optimistic, as the expected return given the present Market Climate remains negative here.

- John P. Hussman, Ph.D. Magnifying the Trivial